MINDA INDUSTRIES - STRONG OUTLOOK

Minda Industries (MIL), a flagship company of NK Minda Group (UNO Minda) is market leader in the domestic Switches and Horns, commanding a market share of 61% and 47% respectively. Switches/Lighting/Horns account for 45%/18%/22% of revenues with ~83% sales to OEMs Bajaj Auto/TVS Motor/ HMSI/Maruti Suzuki account for 27%/16%/9%/6% of standalone revenues.  MIL will benefit from the expected revival in automotive demand, given its strong and improving market share.

Key notes - 

 - During FY14, the exports contributed 19% to the consolidated top-line while the remaining 81% of the consolidated revenues came from domestic markets; 13% of the revenues were recorded from replacement markets while 87% of the revenues were from OEMs. The two-wheeler and four-wheeler percentage in the consolidated revenues stood at 63% and 37%, respectively. The domain-wise revenues break-up was as follows: Electricals & Electronics (46%), Body & Structure (14%), Chassis & Motor Systems (21%) and remaining others (19%).

- The Management stated that the FY14 performance lagged on the consolidated basis primarily due to lower utilization levels in the recently expanded capacities and non-recurring extra-ordinary expenses incurred on acquisition of Spanish Company, Clarton Horn. The acquired entity registered a top-line of above 2,000.0 mn but incurred a loss of approximately Rs.110 mn at the PBT levels which included a one-time Management Fees of roughly Rs.60 mn which was paid to the erstwhile stakeholders for the smooth transfer of operations. The EBITDA margin stood at 4.5% which is likely to go up over the period of next two years on account various cost-cutting measures and streamlining activities to synthesize the Indian and Spanish operations. The subsidiary received upgraded business orders from Renault and Nissan. Additionally, the leading horn manufacturer came out with new horn product for both OEM and Aftermarket.

- The Lighting division which contributed 14% of the top-line was substantially impacted by the slowdown in the four-wheeler category as majority of its revenues are being derived from four-wheelers. The profitability was also impacted in this segment on account of extended investments in Manesar, Pune and Chennai facilities. The Management stated that during last three years, the company has been investing substantially in capacity expansions in lighting division. The capacities are now ready and awaiting a ramp-up in improving the utilization levels. The old facilities have been running at 85-90% but the recently added capacities witnessed low utilization levels of 30-40% which is likely to improve during the current fiscal. The Pune plant is likely to break-even during Q1 FY15. The company has received new orders from Nissan and Mahindra & Mahindra in this division.  The EBITDA margin in the lighting division has come down from 14.96% to 13.72% during FY14.

- The Switches business also dragged the overall performance as the Hosur Plant which started production only in Q1 FY14 took almost three quarters to break-even. The Management expects the full benefits of this added facility only in the second half of FY15. The old capacities of this segment run at 85% utilization levels but the Hosur one ran at  55% in the recent quarter which is likely to move up to 80% within two quarters.

- Minda Distribution & Services Ltd. (MDSL) which is a distribution company for the aftermarket segment is primarily run as a cost-centre and all the profits are passed on to Minda Industries Ltd. and thus, despite a good top-line the profits are negligible. 

- The top-line of another subsidiary, Minda Kyurako doubled from Rs.210.7 mn in FY13 to Rs.467.0 mn in FY14, however, the losses at the PBT levels widened from Rs.15.7 mn in FY13 to Rs.44.3 mn in FY14 primarily due to addition of Bawal facility which started commercial production only during the last year and a paint shop which was added recently. Due to high investments, as reflected in higher interest and depreciation costs, led to widened losses. Nevertheless, the Management expects improved capacity utilization levels in FY15 which will positively impact the profitability levels.

- During the fiscal, the Company has started production of Fuel Caps for Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. The fuel cap business is currently running at 50% capacity utilization levels and is likely to go to 75-80% levels during H2 FY15. In addition, the revenues of Minda Auto Components jumped from Rs.550 mn to Rs.650 mn while the PBT levels improved moderately from Rs.35 mn in FY13 to Rs.40 mn in FY14.

Management Guidance - 

Management expects net sales CAGR to move up to a higher trajectory over FY2014-16E driven by the demand recovery and ramp-up at new facilities/ customers. EBITDA margin is expected to improve from ~5% in FY14 to near double digits over the next two years, on the back of higher utilization levels. Management’s guidance of strong revenue growth, near double-digit EBITDA margin and benefits of deleveraging implies a possible EPS of ~Rs 39 in FY15 and ~Rs 55 in FY16. At the CMP, the stock would be trading at an implied P/E of 12x FY16E earnings respectively. On management’s view of growth/profitability/capex, the company could see a RoCE of ~15% in FY16 and Net Debt:Equity is likely to come down from 0.9x in FY14 to 0.3x in FY16E.